The attack on the outskirts of Moscow was aimed at undermining the sense of security of Russian citizens just days after the death of Alexei Navalny and the victory of Vladimir Putin in the presidential election.
Although a network of the shadowy Islamic State group has claimed responsibility for the asymmetric attack in Moscow, the Russian government is not convinced that specific elements of the group acted alone. President Putin’s recent speech acknowledges the Sunni Islamist identity of the attackers as part of the wider Islamic State network but considers the moral mastermind behind the operation due to the attackers’ plan to flee to Ukraine after the operation. The Russian authorities are trying right now to collect evidence in this direction.
Having refuted the claim of some Western media about an alleged “Russian provocation” to polarize public opinion in Russia, to make new conscription and to intensify the Russian attack on Ukraine, Moscow puts forward the argument that, since it is in a state of war with Ukraine , is able to escalate at any time without endangering the lives of Russian civilians. Besides, such provocations have not taken place in the 25 years of Russia’s rule by Vladimir Putin.
The Kremlin knows that until today the core of ISIS has not turned against American and generally Western targets inside and outside the Middle East. On the contrary, it only targets US opponents in the Islamic world and Russia, especially at the time of the US-driven atrocities the Palestinians are suffering in the Gaza Strip war. The Kremlin also knows that the Islamic State has connections and is financed by Western sources, as shown by the case of the French cement industry that financed the Islamic State against Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian civil war [1].
Russia is considering the possibility that various centers of power in Europe and the US in cooperation with financial interests in the West are responsible for the attack in order to damage the prestige of President Putin and the sense of security inside Russia, replicating the American funding policy of Islamist networks (Taliban) in the Afghanistan war (1979-1988) against the lives of Russian soldiers. Although the role of the US is not yet clear, the fact that the US knew about the impending attack on Moscow and had warned Russia about it has caused a sensation. Was it a warning to avoid an attack by the Kremlin or was it a demonstration of the power of the American intelligence services against the Russian ones and a parallel attempt to threaten Putin and intimidate – disorientate the Russian citizens? Whether the US may be hiding behind the ISIS attack in Moscow will be clarified by the data collected by the Russian authorities in the next twenty-four hours.
[1] “Lafarge Pleads Guilty to Conspiring to Provide Material Support to Foreign Terrorist Organizations,” 18.10.2022, Office of Public Affairs, US University of Justice – https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/lafarge-pleads-guilty-conspiring-provide-material-support-foreign-terrorist-organizations