At least in the United States, the net-favorability rating of a candidate is generally the most reliable statistical indicator of the candidate’s likelihood of winning in the final round of voting if the candidate gets to the final round, but the amount of the candidate’s billionaire donors is a far likelier indication of whether or not the candidate will make it to the final round (the general election). There is always a tension between the preferences of the general public and the preferences of the billionaires. Whereas historically (at least in recent decades) the promises that candidates make to their biggest donors in secret have always been carried out if the candidate wins the office, the promises that the candidate make to the public (the voters) tend not to be carried out. No matter how high a candidate’s net-favorability rating is, billionaires won’t fund the candidate if the candidate is explicit with the voters as making clear statements (as opposed to hedged ones) committing the candidate to policies that all billionaires oppose (such as cutting ‘defense’ expenditures). If America were a democracy, then politicians’ net-favorability ratings would be strong determinants of those individuals winning elections, but instead America is an aristocracy; so, that’s not the case.
Here are the latest net-favorability ratings (which would be important if America were a democracy):
1: RFK Jr. +44% (Favorable) – 29% (Unfavorable) = +15%
2: N. Haley+ 36%-30% = +6%
3: Ramaswamy +35%-30% = +6%
4: Tim Scott +31%-26% = +5%
5: DeSantis +38%-42% = -3%
6: K. Harris +42%-46% = -4%
7: Trump +44%-50% = -6%
8: Williamson +19%-25% = -6%
9: Biden +41%-52% = -12%
10: Pence +34%-49% = -15%
11: Christie +25%-45% = -20%
Highest “Very favorable” ratings (key for get-out-the-votes):
RFK Jr. 13%
Lowest “Very unfavorable” ratings (key for the receptivity of voters who aren’t supporters):
RFK Jr. 13%
Trump has the largest number of passionate supporters but also (along with Biden) the largest numbers of passionate opponents.
Both Biden and Harris have large numbers of passionate supporters, but both also have almost as many passionate opponents as Trump does.
RFK Jr. has declined from his stellar +21% net-favorability ratings in prior polls, but still has easily the best numbers overall of any candidate.
Ramaswamy, Haley, and DeSantis all are feasible alternatives to Trump on the Republican side.
Investigative historian Eric Zuesse’s new book, AMERICA’S EMPIRE OF EVIL: Hitler’s Posthumous Victory, and Why the Social Sciences Need to Change, is about how America took over the world after World War II in order to enslave it to U.S.-and-allied billionaires. Their cartels extract the world’s wealth by control of not only their ‘news’ media but the social ‘sciences’ — duping the public.